Estimating the import demand function in the autoregressive distributed lag framework: The case of China

This paper uses the concept of cointegration for empirically analyzing the long-run relationship of China's import demand function. The analysis employs the annual data for the sample period from 1978 to 2009. The purpose of this study is to investigate and explain China's import demand functions and provide a more in-depth analysis of China's import behavior. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) techniques were used for estimating the long-run coefficients of price and income elasticities. The empirical results from ARDL bound testing approach and Johansen's method of cointegration provide strong evidence of the existence of a long-run stable relationship among the variables included both in the traditional model and the disaggregated expenditure model of import demand. In addition, the disaggregated import demand model estimated in this paper provides a complete description of the determinants of China's imports, and offers empirical results that are significantly different from those obtained in existing studies (Tang, 2003). This is an important finding for resolving the issue of trade imbalance from the perspective of China's policy formulation.Import Demand Function, China, ARDL Model, Dynamic OLS, Bounds Test

The Sustainability of Trade Balances in China

This study uses nonstationary time series approach to test the sustainability of the current account deficits in China over the period from 1982 to 2009. Our empirical results suggest that, despite the cointegrating relationship between imports and exports in China, the intertemporal external constraints may be violated. Thus, the trade balance surplus experienced over the past several years cannot be sustainable in the future. It is therefore necessary to ensure that an effective policy for controlling changes in trade accounts is established.sustainability, trade balances, China

Economic Openness and Growth in China and India: A Comparative Study

Abstract: This paper examines the Melo-Vogt hypotheses and compares the effects of economic openness in China and India. The two defining characteristics of this paper are the addition of a cross term containing the economic globalization index to the traditional import demand function model, and testing for cointegration between variables using Hansen's (1992) method that considers structural change. The results indicate that increasing economic openness has had a greater impact on the economy in China than in India